THIRD POST – AUGUST 15, 2012 – THE RUSSIAN PLAN FOR SYRIA.
If you listen to Sergei Lavrov or Ambassador Churkin, you’d think Russia sees a purpose in bringing all parties together. SyrPer does not believe that Russia’s (or China’s) overt actions on the diplomatic stage are meant for anything but a well-buttressed argument that the Syrian government is fighting intransigent Islamist terrorists who have no interest in peace or a negotiated solution. Even remarks by Lavrov essentially distancing Moscow from Dr. Assad are meant only to show that the Russian Federation is objective and neutral. All this while Russia transfers huge amounts of weapons and ordnance to the Syrian army and masses her naval battleships around Tartous. Russia is believed to have also loaned Syria over 15 billion dollars to keep up the army’s momentum in exterminating the rats.
The Russians have already categorized the so-called opposition starting with the least influential:
1. Traditional opposition activists: Names like Nizar Nayyouf, Riad Al-Turk, Michel Kilo and a handful of others who have been largely marginalized by the new opposition make up this group. They are seen as ineffectual and pacifistic. These figures look benign and rely on the pen to fight what they perceive to be an oppressive government. Their importance is zero.
2. Pacifistic exile opposition: These resemble the traditional opposition figures with the exception that they live overseas either because of ordinary immigration or criminal warrants active in the Syrian Arab Republic. Some have joined the SNC with much reservation. They tend to be secular in orientation with strong academic foundations. A prominent member of this group is Haitham Al-Manna’. This group is of mild interest to the Russians because they are outspoken and viewed as largely honest. They tend to attract most Syrians who don’t want to see their country ravaged by civil war.
3. Non-pacifistic exile opposition: Prolific liar and fantast, Burhan Ghalioun, who teaches political sociology at the Sorbonne is one such example of a non-military proponent of military means to oust the legitimate government of Syria. Basma Qudmani (an American agent and terrorist supporter) and Abdel Basset Sida (Kurd and present leader of the SNC) are examples of these kinds of cowards who hide behind the yokels dying for their pathetic sectarian cause. The Russians see no hope in this group because of their tight associations with the Western countries trying to overthrow Dr. Assad and the Ba’ath.
4. Militarized terrorist opposition: The Russians know there is no solution to this group of criminals but annihilation. Ramazan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader who led the forces that defeated Islamist terrorists in Chechenya, would concur that once you combine religious zealotry with a political cause there is no resolution but the destruction of one of the parties to the conflict. Whereas the Russians might have thought, in the beginning, that the FSA could be cajoled into negotiating with the government, the overwhelming sense today is that the FSA has morphed into something more akin to the Contra movement in Nicaragua. This means that the FSA is no longer its own man; it is ruled and operated by Americans. That means there must be a final showdown with Obama over this issue. There is no point any longer in trying to bring this group into any solution.
Kadyrov was allied with the Russian Federation and was absolutely ruthless in the way he dispatched the Chechen militants who crossed his path. We need him in Syria today.
5. Foreign jihadist terrorists committed to a Sunni solution to Syria: If human waste had its walking exemplars, it would have to be the barbarous race of thugs emanating from Libya. Why Dr. Assad has not fired Scuds at this decrepit excuse for non-civilization is testament to the patience of his Russian allies. These terrorists are coming across from Turkey. An article in today’s second post will explain all that. These dung beetles have attacked Christians and Alawis for purely Islamist reasons. They think they are liberating Sunnis. The Russians know that only fire will uproot this horde of scum.
SyrPer believes that Russia has given up on any peaceful solution to the situation in Syria. In an effort to deal with the Western nations’ efforts to sustain the opposition in its militarized form, Moscow has made the following determinations:
1. Assad can survive this if his army remains loyal and organized.
2. American efforts to “turn” Syrian army officers have largely failed. The officer corps in Syria is professional and dedicated with a sense of military tradition that has not existed for over a millennium. The Russians are impressed with the determination of this largely secular army. The Russians also know that officers from minority groups are fanatically loyal to Dr. Assad.
3. Syrian army maintenance and use of equipment has been exemplary.
4. Syrian chemical weapons are properly protected but ready for use at any time.
5. Syria’s Sunni Defense Minister, Lt. Gen. Fahd Jassem Al-Fureij, is as trusted as the late Lt. Gen. Dawood Rajiha, an Orthodox Christian murdered by the same Israeli/Saudi team that killed Imad Moughniyyeh.
6. The majority of Syrians from all sects remain pro-government even if some do not support Dr. Assad personally. Most Syrians prefer stability to chaos.
7. Iran’s strong support for the Syrian government is a particular plus. Iran can be counted on if the situation turns to East-West confrontation. Iran can strangle oil shipments out of the Gulf and has the ability to sink American naval vessels. Iran is crucial to the calculus. As a note, Russia can also strangle Europe with its monopoly on natural gas.
Closing this waterway is a must for destroying the diseased regimes on the boot of the Peninsula. We can’t wait to see Prince Fatso and Madame Banana swimming in oil.
8. Russia’s loyalty to Assad (despite her constant disclaimers) show Russian allies that they can count on Moscow in a pinch. This is so important to former Soviet republics now allied with Russia.
9. Russia must win this battle. The U.S. Britain and France cannot come out of this the way they did in Libya. Western treachery will be avenged.
In order to come out of this conflict a winner, Russia is now committed to insuring that Turkey’s role be limited to facilitating terrorism only. If the Turks were to make the mistake of attacking Syria or participating in some ill-conceived “No-Fly Zone”, Russia has already threatened intervention. This means Iranian involvement and PKK assistance. The Russians are comfortable with Erdoghan’s ability to understand the consequences of any overt military action. But the Turkish issue is not fully resolved. SyrPer predicts that Moscow will give Dr. Assad the green light to arm the PKK with anti-aircraft missiles and advanced RPGs as Erdoghan’s army of Libyan apes grows larger.
The Russian leadership is understandably puzzled by the U.S.’s approach to Syria. But they have adjusted to the irrational American support for its erstwhile enemies in Al-Qaeda. The Russians calculate that the U.S. and NATO will not move forces toward Damascus because the Obama administration understands that the Russian fleet at Tartous is not there to take in the sun. WWIII over Syria is inconceivable.
Russia sees the battle in Aleppo as crucial. The terrorists are running out of ammunition and are unable to sneak in significant amounts of reinforcements. The assessment is that the terrorists are growing weak with each passing day as the Syrian army relentlessly pounds their positions. They are now mostly concentrated in Saif-al-Dawla which, we told our readers, abuts on to parkland that will make sniping much easier for our marksmen. Russia sees the FSA’s situation as hopeless.
But what to do after Aleppo? What can the Syrian government do to prevent a repeat of the Damascus and Aleppo scares? SyrPer would urge Russia to consider greater satellite intelligence sharing with the Syrian general staff. Iran needs, also, to increase its use of pilotless drone surveillance aircraft. Syria needs to properly cover the entire border with Turkey with cluster bomblets that are more effective than landmines in preventing intrusion from the FSA criminals. If the bomblets are not available, then a threefold increase of border protection is absolutely necessary. The insurrection must be aborted fully and finally.
To this date, Dr. Assad and his chiefs have been reactive, not proactive. What Russia can do to alter this mindset will determine her victory over American machinations in the Levant. Russia may be moving in this direction. I am suggesting that confrontation with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar may be coming to a theater near you – and none too soon.