THIRD POST – SEPTEMBER 5, 2012 – CONCLUSION: SYRIA’S ARMY RESERVES
This entire post, parts 1 through 3 for today, are a response to Anonymous’ inquiry into why Syria has not called up its 500,000-strong reserve forces.
NATO’s strategy is obvious. Wear down Syria’s army with a prolonged insurgency that will trigger larger faults in the delicate, mosaic-like sectarian/ethnic society which defines Syria as a modern state. Keep pushing at Sunni loyalist officers; convince them that they cannot win in the hope they will turn coat and join the opposition. Such demoralizing events will eventually accumulate and emasculate the army. This is the essence of the NATO project in Syria as defined politically by the traitor-Neo-Conservative Zionist cabal in Washington D.C.
It has not worked so far. Russia’s strategy is similar to NATO’s in an obverse way. Break the back of the insurgency by showcasing the resilience of Syria’s loyal armed forces. Make it clear to the opposition that it cannot win in any scenario. Even a move to interfere directly in Syria’s situation will ignite something terribly close to WWIII. Russia has deployed over 26 battle cruisers off the coast of Tartous. China has one as a complement. Iran has sent two battleships. The opposition is on notice that no cavalry is coming to help.
If Syria’s General Staff wants to end the insurgency quickly, it will have to decide to take the war to neighboring countries. This should be very clear. But Russia has advised against opening up new fronts with Turkey and Jordan. An attack against Turkey would invoke a NATO response by virtue of treaty. By the same token, an attack by Turkey against Syria would likewise invoke Iran’s mutual defense treaty with Syria and open the door to a Israeli-Hizbollah war. An attack against Jordan would bring in Britain and Israel who view themselves as protectors of King Abdallah II. These are scenarios the Russians (and Iranians) don’t encourage.
Syria could call up reserves to fight the terrorists inside her borders if those reserves were necessary. The issues for Syria are two-fold: One: does a 375,000 man army need reserves in the first place? Two: what is the cost of calling up these reserves? The answer to the first appears to be “no”. General Al-Fureij has not deemed this to be necessary and General Ayoub, Chief of the Syrian General Staff, has not asked for such reserves. Only reservists with specializations have been called up to date since October of 2011.
It is clear that Syria has found a way around this problem by “extending tours of duty for those enlisted men who have already undergone extensive anti-insurgency training” thereby eliminating the need to train new reserve units. I can tell you from our own relatives that such long tours of duty are a disappointment. But, in speaking to those same relatives, I detect a sense of pride and resoluteness, a classical Levantine fatalism that will serve the armed forces well in the future.
It would cost Syria an estimated Ten Billion Dollars to maintain another 500,000 men under arms for two years. Syria’s foreign cash reserves at the start of this insurgency in March 2011 was over 48 Billion Dollars. Syria eliminated all debt in 2006 and is, with the exception of loans recently taken from Russia, debt-free. However, such a cost reduces Damascus’ ability to maneuver despite aid from Iran that comes without interest or condition. Other financial supporters are many and will surprise a lot of our readers.
Yahoo, another widget in the arsenal of psych-ops mavens in the Puzzle Palace, reported yesterday that Syria was having difficulty calling up reserves. The unattributed article quoted nobody but that floundering felon, Rami Abdel-Rahman of SOHR. The article made claim that an Alawi young man was looking to evade military service because he feared leaving his only daughter. Of course, no name was given. It was pure hooey. I can assure you that the only reserves being called up now are those involved in “specialization areas” such as air defense, sea defense and aircraft maintenance.
I hope I answered your question, Anonymous. I look forward to answering more as time goes by and to the best of my ability. We need to address Alex’s question put to me yesterday at an estaminet we frequent. I will begin that anon.